Sunday, June 28, 2009

Victories and Victors

[ Excerpted from: "Triumphant Democrats Gather to Hail Victories and Victors - Awards are handed out left and right — er, left — at annual Roosevelt-Hamer Dinner," By Kenny Lindberg, Noozhawk, 06.28.2009 ]


Celebrating last year’s historic victories for the party, the Santa Barbara Democratic Party held its 2009 Roosevelt-Hamer Dinner on Saturday to honor members’ contributions and build on the grassroots efforts that led to sweeping success in 2008.

The event at the Santa Barbara Woman’s Club-Rockwood was hosted by former Assemblywoman Hannah-Beth Jackson...

Jackson... introduced the many dignitaries present, including Santa Barbara Mayor Marty Blum; Goleta Mayor Roger Aceves; Rep. Lois Capps, D-Santa Barbara; and Frank Kelly, founder of the Nuclear Age Peace Foundation and a former speechwriter for President Harry S. Truman.

Santa Barbara Democratic Party chairman Daraka Larimore-Hall then took the floor and discussed the importance of grassroots campaigns...

Capps then told guests about the new energy bill she helped get through the House of Representatives on Friday, and how the initiative will help the nation by reducing carbon emissions by an estimated 80 percent by 2050.

Awards were then handed out, and Gina Fisher was the first recipient, earning the Democratic Future Award, for her activism as a member of the UCSB Campus Democrats...

The Democratic Leadership Award went to Cheryl Hermann for her grassroots effort to try to recruit liberal voters from the Santa Ynez Valley...

The Democratic Values Award, presented to the elected official who has gone the extra mile to help grow and support the grassroots effort, was awarded to Santa Barbara City Councilman Das Williams, who is running for an Assembly seat.

“He has always demonstrated outstanding Democratic leadership,” said presenter Vibiana Saavedra, treasurer of the Santa Barbara Democratic Party. “He is truly passionate about grassroot activities.”

Williams thanked his volunteers, then briefly discussed California’s chronic budget woes, saying that “the problems aren’t going to be solved by the governor and not by the Legislature ... it will be solved by grassroots (efforts) to get rid of the two-thirds majority.”

He was referring to the two-thirds majority vote of the Legislature that is required to raise taxes or to overturn a veto by the governor. Democrats are just short of the margin in both the state Senate and the Assembly in Sacramento.

The California Teachers Association was the recipient of the Solidarity Award, for its efforts this past year, including its support of the “No on Prop. 8” campaign in the battle over same-sex marriage.

The last speaker was California Democratic Party vice chairman Eric Bauman, whose loud speech drew frequent applause from the audience...

Bauman’s speech was briefly interrupted when lifelong Democrat Elissa Rubin rose and asked him if he took any donations from corporations. Bauman told Rubin that he wasn’t running for anything, then finished off by reiterating the importance that Democratic Party grassroots efforts will play in the next election cycle.

Rubin said later that there needs to be campaign finance reform because “as long as Republicans and Democrats take donations from corporations nothing is going to change, no matter who is president.”

... The sold-out fundraising dinner [is] named after President Franklin D. Roosevelt and civil rights activist and pioneer Fannie Lou Hamer...

-----------------------------

For full text, please go to:

NOOZHAWK: Triumphant Democrats Gather to Hail Victories and Victors

Friday, June 26, 2009

Mike Stoker Responds

In case you did not see this press release from Mike Stoker, please read on...

-----------------------------------

From: Mike Stoker for Assembly 2010
Re: Endorsement of Hanna Beth Jackson of Das Williams
Date: June 24, 2009
Contact; Mike Stoker (805) 478-4975


The following is a statement Mike Stoker released today commenting on the endorsement of Hanna Beth Jackson of SB City Councilman Das Williams:

"I congratulate Das on his endorsement by Hanna Beth Jackson. However it should be noted that Hanna Beth has been dubbed the Queen of Taxes and hence the nickname Taxin Jackson. has picked up the endorsement form the Queen of Taxes herself, Taxin Jackson. And Das has been following in her footsteps ever since his first job for Hanna Beth as one of her field representatives.

[Forced paragraph break by DAS Blog]

This is exactly why I decided to run for office so the voters would have a choice of more of the same by politicians who want to keep taking money out of our pocketbook's which is what Das and Hanna Beth believe we should do vs. getting a reality check and pursuing policies that will require the state to live within its means. (I issued a statement last month expressing specifying what real solutions the state should pursue at this time and will provide to you upon request to mikestoker@aol.com.)

[Forced paragraph break by DAS Blog]

Bottom line, me and the vast majority of people in the 35th Assembly District get it and we all voted no to Prop. 1A-1E last month in the special election. (67% voted NO!) Taxin Jackson and her young protege Das Williams didn't get, and still don't, and voted yes. Should we be surprised that Das has teamed up with Taxin Jackson to make his run for the Assembly seat? Absolutely not. I would have been shocked if Taxin Jackson supported anyone other than Das. The race really comes down to two choices....more of the same that got our state into this mess or real solutions requiring fiscal restraint and spending caps as to restore California to the prosperous state it once was?"

Thursday, June 25, 2009

Balanced City Budget

NEWS RELEASE, City of Santa Barbara, Contact: Nina Johnson, Assistant to the City Administrator, Phone: 805-564-5307, NJohnson@SantaBarbaraCA.gov

CITY COUNCIL ADOPTS BALANCED BUDGET

SANTA BARBARA, CA – 6/24/09

After two months of deliberations, the City Council unanimously adopted a balanced budget for Fiscal Year 2010 on June 23, 2009. The budget includes a total operating budget of $238 million and a capital budget totaling $22 million. The General Fund operating budget is $104 million, providing funding for police, fire, parks, recreation, library, community development, and administrative services.

The City faced an estimated $10.8 million deficit in the upcoming fiscal year beginning July 1, 2009, representing approximately 10% of the General Fund operating budget. The budget was balanced with a combination of reduced costs and enhanced revenue, involving the following measures: 1) department budget reductions; 2) citywide labor measures; 3) increased fees and charges; 4) structural budget changes; and 5) delays to capital improvements.

While most programs and services will continue, the public can anticipate some service changes. All departments will reduce spending on supplies, services, and training. With a hiring freeze in effect and employee positions reduced through attrition, 41.9 full-time equivalent (FTE) employee positions will be eliminated in the upcoming year. Delays in processing and longer wait times may be noticed at public counters.

Significant cost savings will be achieved through citywide labor measures. These measures include a 104-hour furlough or unpaid leave for managers, supervisors, and general employees over the December holiday and five other dates throughout the year. As a result, administrative offices and non-emergency facilities will close to the public on specified dates.

To generate additional revenue, the City will pursue collection of the transient occupancy and business license taxes for vacation rentals and begin a late payment fee for utility payments. Fee increases are planned for parking citations, vehicle release, building permits, land development applications, dog licenses, and park and facility events hosted by commercial businesses. When appropriate, General Fund costs will be shifted to Enterprise Fund operations where user fee revenue should support such expenses.

Several capital improvement projects will be delayed to curtail spending in the upcoming year. The City’s planned capital improvement program for General Fund facilities was reduced to $600,000, providing funds for the Shoreline Park Safety Improvement Project, Lower Mesa Lane Steps Replacement, Oak Park Restroom Renovation, and other major projects.

Department budget reductions comprise the largest portion of the balancing measures. These cost reductions will result in limited purchases of library books and materials, decreased efficiency in zoning enforcement, and less frequent tree pruning and park maintenance activities. While school crossing guard services will no longer be provided by the City, the Police Department will work with the School District, parents, and volunteers to continue the service.

Recreation opportunities will be scaled back with fewer Concerts in the Park events this summer, cancellation of the Senior Tour Program, and closure of the Lower Westside Center. The 1235 Teen Center will be closed on Saturdays and the Oak Park Wading Pool will remain closed. Thanks to a fundraising commitment by the Friends of Los Banos, the planned elimination of the free recreation swim program at Ortega Park Pool and Sunday lap swim at Los Banos Pool will be restored.

Financial assistance to community organizations will decrease by 8.4%, the same percentage adjustment as City departments. By Council action, the Conference and Visitors Bureau and New Beginnings will continue to receive funding at current levels.

The City Council adopted the budget and acknowledged that the future of the City’s financial condition remains uncertain, as major tax revenues continue to decline and the state budget deficit is unresolved. The Council expressed an interest in becoming a smaller, more efficient organization and revisiting the adopted budget in upcoming months to make modifications if needed.

Videos of Council budget discussions are available on the City’s website at: www.SantaBarbaraCA.gov. When completed, the final budget document will be made available to the public at the City’s website, the City Clerk’s Office at 735 Anacapa Street, and the Public Library at 40 E. Anapamu Street.

--------------------------

See also:

SB Independent: Leaking Budget - "It’s a budget that already has a $1.4 million hole in it." City finance czar Bob Peirson

DAILY SOUND: Budget Balanced For Now - “I’ve never seen it like this. This is my 14th year on the council and it’s never been like this. It’s very worrisome. We don’t see an end to the recession. I don’t think we’ve bottomed out yet.” Mayor Marty Blum

NOOZHAWK: Deficit Looms - “Tonight is not the time to start putting things back in the budget when we don’t even know what the deficit is,” Councilmember Roger Horton - “All the departments have made their best recommendations as to what services to keep to the public as a whole, and I think we should honor that.” Councilmember Grant House - “I think what we’re all saying is that as hard as this year was, we’re nowhere near over trying to figure out the full structural deficit of the city’s budget.” Councilmember Helene Schneider

Tuesday, June 23, 2009

Hannah-Beth Jackson 4 DAS

A Message from Assemblywoman Hannah-Beth Jackson (Ret.):

PLEASE JOIN ME IN SUPPORTING DAS WILLIAMS
FOR STATE ASSEMBLY



Dear Friends,

California is in a time of crisis. As the state faces a growing budget deficit, cuts to schools, a shrinking economy and continued environmental challenges, we need a State Assemblymember who can face these challenges head-on and bring real change to Sacramento.

That is why I urge you to join me in supporting Das Williams for California State Assembly District 35.

I was honored to represent the 35th District for 6 years, and I know that Das has the right experience and leadership to be an effective advocate for our interests in Sacramento. I have known and worked with Das for over a decade -- working on issues ranging from the environment and education to economic justice and women’s rights. As a Santa Barbara City Councilmember, he understands first-hand how decisions-made-in-Sacramento affect people in their daily lives.

Das has taken an independent, results-oriented approach while on the Santa Barbara City Council. Under his leadership, the city has balanced budgets, saved for the future, and expanded after-school programs. Das spearheaded initiatives that have made Santa Barbara a model green city, while working with many up and down the Central Coast to protect local businesses and jobs; ensuring working folks get fair and equal pay. It is this kind of innovative and creative leadership that Das will bring to Sacramento.

Das will bring new energy, new ideas, and a renewed commitment to the Democratic values reflective in our community -- values which are desperately needed in Sacramento.

Das’ campaign for the Assembly is in a critical stage. Das is already off to a strong start. We need to maintain momentum by continuing to show that his supporters are willing to step up to the plate with the dollars that are necessary to run a winning campaign. The first deadline to donate is June 30, 2009.

Use the ActBlue form below to make a contribution today. Help bring new energy, new ideas, and real change to Sacramento by donating today.

Sincerely,


Assemblywoman Hannah-Beth Jackson (Ret.)



My contribution: $






P.S. Please spread the word to your friends, family and neighbors by forwarding this message.

For more information about the campaign and volunteer opportunities please email Das at daswilliams2010@gmail.com - Das is also on Facebook and Twitter

Hanna-Beth and Das Working Together, 2003

Friday, June 19, 2009

Williams - Stoker Videos

PlanetSantaBarbara.com has two half hour interviews with Das and Mike Stoker. Take the following link and then go to the section "Politics":

Williams - Stoker Videos

Thursday, June 18, 2009

Iran Coverage

Some up-to-date sources of information on events in Iran, include:

New York Times blog (refresh browser screen for most current information):
The Lede

Twitter: Iranian Elections Disputed:
http://twitter.com/#search?q=%23iranelection

Twitter: Tehran:
http://twitter.com/#search?q=Tehran%20OR%20%23Tehran

Wednesday, June 17, 2009

SBCAG & Planning

Unparalleled challenges face the residents of Santa Barbara County, from increasingly clogged commutes and expensive housing to shrinking open space and agricultural land.

Communities across the 2,737 square-mile county are scrambling to find appropriate areas for new growth as populations expand, in addition to searching for ways to address growing concerns about air quality and environmental protection.

No other agency or organization in the county is more fit to seek out and implement solutions to those challenges than the Santa Barbara County Association of Governments, according to a recent County Grand Jury report...

But the organization, known as SBCAG, has not done enough to focus on comprehensive regional planning, the civil jury found, and instead has focused on road projects rather than other critical issues that impact residents, such as the jobs-housing imbalance and land use planning...

[ Please read the entire story at: "More regional planning needed, report finds" ]

... Santa Barbara Councilmember Das Williams said he is a strong advocate for any type of regional planning that will bring the jobs-housing equation back into balance, or at least tip it in the right direction.

He acknowledged that the process has been politicized in the past, particularly with the notorious north-south split dividing the county, but said he is hopeful that elected leaders will be able to create better relationships in response to the grand jury report.

“Ultimately, we should be working together to minimize development on open space and our agricultural areas, and incentivize housing that’s affordable for working people close to where they work,” Williams said. “Ultimately, that will reduce traffic and keep us strong as a community.”

-------------------------------

For full text and comments, please go to:

"More regional planning needed, report finds," By Eric Lindberg, DAILY SOUND, June 16, 2009

Monday, June 15, 2009

Latest Email Message

A Message from DAS
June 2009


This Time 'Round:

* We Balanced The Budget!
* Mail in Your Sierra Club Ballot ASAP
* Sci-Fi to Save The Ventura Library System
* Synthetic Sea - Free, TONIGHT!


I Know No One Will Believe It, but We Balanced the Budget!

Since the Jesusita Fire, I have been concentrating on dealing with our approx. 8% budget deficit. This includes finding the areas we can cut the Santa Barbara City's budget without cutting essential services like patrol officers, firefighters, and programs that keep our youth out of trouble, as well as making sure that various entities are contributing their share of revenue. My work has been matched by political courage from my colleagues on the City Council, co-operation from employee unions in order to achieve cost savings through concessions and alternative ideas, and tremendous effort from the management and budget staff to present multiple options.

At a budget work session last Tuesday, we came up with a plan for a balanced budget for the next fiscal year that begins July 1. It is fully balanced for this year without any involuntary layoffs -- layoffs that would have reduced many important services. To do this we did have to eliminate many open positions, delay vehicle replacements, axe travel and training, reduce our own City Council budget, and shift some expenses onto more secure funds in the City. We have even carved out nearly $1.7 million in contingency funds in case our COPS grant to pay for police officers fails or the state raids the City for gas tax or General Fund money.



Mail In Your Sierra Club Ballot ASAP

Have you made a donation to Sierra Club in the last year? Do you live in SB or Ventura County? If so, you are likely a member of the Sierra Club Los Padres Chapter and have received a ballot in the mail for the new Executive Committee election. Please vote for up to three candidates and mail in your ballot early this week! To learn more, go to http://lospadres.sierraclub.org/newsletter/2009-03_Jun_Jul.pdf and turn to Page 6 of the Condor Call.



Sci-Fi to Save the Ventura Library System!

Join the San Buenaventura Friends of the Ventura Library in welcoming science fiction legend Ray Bradbury to Ventura to kick-off the Wright Library Author Series. Admission is only $25 and $15 for children and seniors. The event will include a short documentary film, a rare film written by Mr. Bradbury, and a Q&A with Mr. Bradbury. The event takes place 2-5:30pm, Saturday June 20, at the Ventura college Theatre on the 4700 block of Loma Vista Road.


Synthetic Sea: Results of People Using Single-use Bags and Plastic

Join the City of SB's Creeks Division and County Project Clean Water for "Synthetic Sea", a FREE Community Forum TONIGHT, Monday, June 15th from 6:30 - 8pm at the Cabrillo Pavilion Arts Center, 1118 E. Cabrillo Blvd.

Last summer, Dr. Marcus Eriksen sailed from Long Beach to Hawaii on a raft made of 15,000 plastic bottles! Now he's on his way to Santa Barbara along with Anna Cummins on a 2,000 mile bicycle JUNKride from Vancouver to Tijuana to raise awareness about plastic pollution rapidly increasing in the North Pacific Ocean.

On a quest to end the age of disposable plastics, Eriksen and Cummins will present wrenching photographs from a decade of research at sea, and share their observations of the North Pacific Gyre, a swirling vortex of ocean currents twice the size of the United States, in which vast quanitites of plastic are rapidly accumulating. Learn how to get involved locally with organizations including SB Channelkeeper, Jean-Michel Cousteau's Ocean Futures Society, Surfrider Foundation, Art From Scrap, and Healing Oceans Together.

View the event flyer here: http://www.santabarbaraca.gov/NR/rdonlyres/39AEB8F8-01D4-4C6C-AB15-67417F178824/0/ForumFlyer.pdf


Have A Great Summer!

Das Williams

Friday, June 12, 2009

Bars and Nightclubs

... Hotel owners complain that city police aren’t enforcing the existing noise and crowd rules and contend that the bars and nightclubs actually cost City Hall far more — in the form of heightened police services — than they ever bring in via sales and business taxes...

... councilmembers Helene Schneider and Das Williams both quizzed Assistant City Attorney Scott Vincent about collecting higher revenues from bar and nightclub owners and what, if any, legal impediments might block City Hall from pursuing this path. Vincent’s answer was sufficiently discouraging to prompt Councilmember Grant House to conclude, “I don’t think you can get there from here.” That’s because under California law, any new taxes must first be approved by a vote of the people and any increased assessment must first be voted on by the bar owners themselves. Either scenario conjures the necessity of waging uphill political campaigns against business opponents capable of raising cash while lamenting, justifiably, hard economic times.

None of this was sufficient, however, to chase away Williams or Schneider, though neither have particularly clear ideas on how to proceed. Williams harbors hope that “responsible bar owners” will support the creation of a new assessment district that would exact new revenues to defray the high costs of policing businesses where alcohol is sold. Schneider remains cautiously optimistic bar owners might be persuaded to “voluntarily” contribute a percentage of their admission charges into the city’s General Fund.

There is, however, a third way to skin the proverbial cat, one that the City of Santa Barbara has not considered at all. Beginning in 2005, the City of Ventura began charging an annual business license renewal fee to any bar, nightclub, restaurant, or grocery store permitted by the state to sell alcohol. From this, Ventura generates $182,000 per year for its General Fund. This money pays for one full-time police officer assigned exclusively to moderate the excesses associated with the sale of alcohol. Because Ventura defined this exaction as a “fee,” rather than a tax or an assessment, no election was required...

-- "Do Bars & Nightclubs Pay Their Fair Share? - Politicos Ponder New ‘Entertainment’ Exaction for Lower State Street Establishments," By Nick Welsh, SB INDEPENDENT, June 11, 2009

Budget Deliberations

... the State of California — facing a $24 billion deficit of its own — appears intent upon raiding up to $3.6 million in revenues that would otherwise go to City Hall...

... councilmember and mayoral candidate Iya Falcone announced she wanted to re-instate all the cuts proposed for the police and fire departments. Initially, it appeared Falcone — who has been strongly backed in her mayoral bid by the Police Officers Association and the Firefighters Association — was seeking to restore $2.2 million in funding to the two departments, but with refinement from councilmember Dale Francisco — and help from harried city budget analysts — that sum would shrink to $430,000. Even so, it was way too much for Falcone’s fellow councilmembers to swallow. Councilmember Grant House objected — through a series of pointed questions directed at staff — that Falcone was attempting to balance the entire budget deficit on the backs of other city departments. He noted that the police and fire departments had been asked to absorb much smaller cuts than other departments in deference to their importance. Councilmember Helene Schneider — also running for mayor — accused Falcone of playing “the public safety card.” Mayor Marty Blum expressed vexation that Falcone had not declared her intentions earlier; Falcone retorted that her support for public safety had been unequivocal throughout the weeks of preliminary budget discussions, if not the whole last year. And councilmember Das Williams, now running for state assembly, demanded to know where Falcone hoped to find the half a million dollars to restore police and fire funding. Falcone, he charged, was resorting to budgetary “gimmicks and illusions” by assuming City Hall would receive certain revenues that state lawmakers had all but vowed to keep...

-- "Tempers Flare in Budget Brouhaha - Public Safety Pitted Against Other City Functions," By Nick Welsh, SB INDEPENDENT, June 11, 2009

Thursday, June 11, 2009

Candidates' Web Presence

Santa Barbara Young Democrats recently interviewed candidates for City Council.





"The purpose of the meeting was to give the local Democrat candidates a chance to introduce themselves, and hopefully earn SBYD's eventual endorsement.

"The format was simple. Each candidate was given a few minutes alone with the YD's to introduce themselves, pitch, and answer some brief questions. Any other candidates vying for the same position were asked to wait their turn outside the door...

"Candidates in attendance were Helene Schnieder, Grant House, Iya Falcone, David Pritchett, Dianne Channing & Olivia Uribe. Das Williams was there in his capacity as a young democrat...

I have made up some ratings for each candidates web-savviness based on whatever I could (easily) find..."

__________________________

Please click on post title to go to full text at City2.0

Sunday, June 07, 2009

A New Citizen

Recently, Das took time out to drive the newest U.S. citizen in the family to her swearing-in ceremony, down at the LA Fairgrounds. Congratulations, Paretawan!



( Paretawan, Das, Kulthida )

Friday, June 05, 2009

Taxi Stands for State Street

[ Excerpt from: Santa Barbara Independent: New Taxi Stands for State Street ]

City councilmember Das Williams, who pledged his support of the cabbies last summer, has also personally met with a coalition of taxi cab members to assess their needs. “We can’t stop enforcing the law,” he said, “but I really understand that there are things we can do to help. This is the first step and, hopefully, we will continue to work together to ensure that they can operate effectively downtown. This probably shouldn’t be the end of what the city does to help them, but it’s a good first step.”

Thursday, June 04, 2009

1298 Coast Village Road

The Santa Barbara City Council on 6/2/2009 upheld the city's Architectural Board of Review (ABR) and Planning Commission to approve mixed-use development at 1298 Coast Village Road in Montecito.


NOOZHAWK:

... The project, a three-story building that would contain a floor of commercial space and eight two-story condominiums, was approved by the Planning Commission in March 2008... The development site on Coast Village Road is home to a gas station, which would be demolished...

At 35 feet in height, opponents of the project took issue with the third story, saying it was out of character for the neighborhood...

Tuesday’s marathon meeting, where 80 speaker slips were turned in from members of the public, resulted in a 6-1 vote, with Councilmember Dale Francisco dissenting...

Councilmember Das Williams said the council was restricted to looking at the size, bulk and scale, and while he commended the ABR for its work, he recommended that the height of the rear of the building be dropped another foot and a half on the northern side of building that faces the neighbors...

-- For full text and comments, please go to: "Santa Barbara Council Denies Appeal to Coast Village Development," by By Lara Cooper and Kenny Lindberg, Noozhawk, 06.03.2009


DAILY NEWS:

Coast Village Road project wins city approval

By ERIC LINDBERG — June 3, 2009

After a few laps through the Santa Barbara planning process, a redesigned proposal to replace an aging gas station at 1298 Coast Village Rd. with a three-story mixed-use building got the nod of approval from city leaders...

“I’m pretty happy with the project,” Councilmember Roger Horton said, effectively summing up the majority opinion. “I think the architectural design is really quite high quality and is something I’d like to see on that corner.”

... The council had denied a prior appeal of a Planning Commission approval, but sent the design plans to the Architectural Board of Review for further tinkering to reduce the apparent size, bulk and scale of the building, which includes eight condos and 4,800 square feet of commercial space.

When the project came back to the council on appeal again, many city leaders said they felt the ABR had effectively followed their direction...

Several groups of concerned citizens, known as Save Coast Village Road and Protect Our Village, disagreed with that assessment, however, and called on city leaders to grant the appeal and request more reductions...

[Councilmember Dale Francisco, the one dissenting vote] called for a better transition into the residential neighborhood to the north. Councilmember Das Williams made a suggestion to that end, asking Gorrell to work with the ABR en route to final approval to lower the northernmost portions of the building by a foot and a half.

That concept drew support from a majority of the council and became the single condition that accompanied the decision to deny the appeal and move the project forward.

-- For full text and comments, please go to: "Coast Village Road project wins city approval," by Eric Lindberg, DAILY NEWS, June 3, 2009.

Wednesday, June 03, 2009

Calculated Drag

Mike Stoker, Republican contender for the 35th Assembly District seat, thinks... his low-tax, less-government, pro-business, “100 percent economic agenda” will hold strong crossover appeal for independents and moderate Democrats in the district.

... Stoker’s betting on a stars-are-aligned political calculus to beat the odds and pull off an upset in 2010. For starters, there is a contested primary on the other side, which will require both [Susan] Jordan and [Das] Williams to spend money and other resources to get to the general election, an obstacle course Stoker likely will be spared.

Because 2010 is not a presidential election year, when voter turnout peaks, he believes he’ll also benefit from low vote totals in the liberal districts around Isla Vista and UCSB, giving the overall electorate a more centrist cast. Finally, he points to 2004, the last contested election race for an open seat in the 35th district, when Republican Bob Pohl made a competitive run, eventually losing 52.8-47.2 percent to Nava. In that race, Pohl’s final percentage was more than 15 points higher than GOP registration that year, while Nava ran about eight points ahead of his party on the Democratic side; from Stoker’s perspective, this means that Pohl captured about twice as many independent/decline-to-state voters as his rival.

... The problem for the Republican, however, is that since the 2004 race, the gap in partisan registration has accelerated even more, with the GOP’s registration level falling further behind the Democrats’ in just six years. But Stoker believes that the results of the May 19 special election, in which voters overwhelmingly defeated five state budget ballot initiatives sponsored by Gov. Schwarzenegger and the Democratic leadership of the Legislature, clearly signal a political sea change... Armed with this political prognosis, Stoker will try to position himself as the agent of change, portraying either Jordan or Williams as the status quo candidate of Democratic legislative leaders...

---------------------------

For the full text, images and comments, please go to:

-- "Blue Dog Republican - Mike Stoker Seeks Democratic Votes in GOP Assembly Bid," By Jerry Roberts, SB INDEPENDENT, June 2, 2009